Jacob Young’s elite defense

On August 15, 2024, in Philadelphia, after having made a spectacular leaping catch against the fence, Jacob Young took a step in on a hard-hit ball right at him. He recovered quickly enough to reach up and grab the liner, only to have it pop out of his glove. He was charged with an error.

If it weren’t for his quick reaction on a difficult play for any outfielder, the ball would have gone over his head. But Young isn’t just any outfielder. When you make the kind of plays he routinely makes, you get in a position to catch balls others wouldn’t. So he dropped one. It happens.

In fact, Young was charged with eight fielding errors, six of them on misplayed balls already on the ground in front of him, allowing a runner to advance. That’s the most by an outfielder in 2024. Yet, that’s why, as Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report wrote, “Young is Exhibit A in the case to more or less disregard errors when judging a player’s value/added” on defense because he led all outfielders in Outs Above Average, a significant measure of defensive prowess. Yet those errors likely contributed, however, to his failure to win what would have been his first Gold Glove.

By a slew of the ever-expanding metrics to measure defense, Jacob Young was the best center-fielder in baseball in 2024. The eyeballs of many players, coaches and fans confirm that. It’s why , he was one of three finalists with a chance to become the first Nationals’ outfielder to earn a Gold Glove.

Yet the N.L. Gold Glove in center again went to Brenton Doyle of Colorado, a fine fielder with a stronger arm who finished first in the Society for American Baseball Research’s Defensive Index. Still, it’s unlikely he is better at making great catches than Young.

The Nationals have had excellent fielding fly-ball chasers in center before. Roger Bernadina and Young’s immediate predecessor, Victor Robles, come to mind. And that’s not to mention Michael A. Taylor, another former National who might well have joined Young as a N.L. finalist, had he played more in Pittsburgh. Yet none of those guys regularly made as many highlight-reel plays as Young.

Young led all outfielders with 15 outs on balls at a 25-50 percent catch probability. His seven catches made with a 0-25 percent catch probability were tied for the lead. His foot speed and good jumps certainly help: He stole 25 bases in row after his call-up in August 2023 before being caught a month into the 2024 season.

How does Young do it? Aside from taking fly balls of all kinds in all directions at every ball park before games, he watches where the Nats’ catcher set up for a pitch — and gambles.

“You can look really smart sometimes, especially if you guess right,” Young told the Washington Post’s Spencer Nusbaum. “And it’s just something where I’m trying to get moving…. I’m able to have a quick correction if it is the wrong direction.”

Indeed, it’s Young ability to correct on the fly that makes him an elite defender. While he ranks last in route-running as measured by Baseball Savant, he is far ahead of every other MLB outfielder in the speed of his reaction. The 4.6 feet he covers in the first 1.5 seconds, combined with his 97th-percentile sprint speed produce the best “jumps” on fly balls of anybody. The next best outfielder covered 2.4 feet.

SABR’s rankings count for 25 percent toward determining what players earn a Gold Glove. The August 12 rankings, the last before the season’s end, had Young on top, well ahead of Taylor (now with the Pirates), 11.8 to 8.2. Yet the final rankings dropped Young into a tie with Taylor at 8.8, who started just 80 games in center in 2024. Pete Crow-Armstrong, second by SABR’s composite at 10.4, started 109 games in center to Young’s 142. Four of Young’s errors came between August 15 and September 15.

 The SABR Defensive Index “aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics,” according to the group’s website, from four sources. Among the four metrics are play-by-play accounts and the game charting provided by Sports Info Solutions (SIS), which is what I did for a dozen seasons myself for the baseball unit of SIS. I can attest that it is to a degree subjective, as are broadcasters’ play-by-play perceptions. So it is hard for me to fathom how SABR’s composite numbers produced that much of a drop for Young and such a dramatic month-and-a-half jump for Doyle.

Young’s FanGraphs’ Defensive Ranking (13.4) topped all other outfielders. He tied Doyle in center for the most Defensive Runs Saved with 11.

Baseball Savant credited him with 20 Outs Above Average, one behind second baseman Andres Gimenez of Cleveland for tops among players of all positions. Young’s 18 Runs Prevented was the highest number of any player since 2019. Savant’s own combined metric, Fielding Run Value, had Young and Crow-Armstrong tops among N.L. outfielder at 16, one ahead of ahead of Doyle. But SABR’s 11.2 grade for Doyle was first among outfielders, and could have influenced the coaches and managers whose votes count for 75 percent in determining the winner.

Outfield defense in general has shown a slight but measurable improvement over the past several seasons, adding to a number of factors that are depressing batting averages. Even so, Young stands out, which is why some day, if he hits enough, he should have “Gold Glove centerfielder” attached to his name.

This also appeared in the February 2025 edition of Squibber, the online quarterly newsletter of the Bob Davids’ chapter of SABR.