Nationals equal an obscure stolen base record

In consecutive games – April 7-8-9, 2024 — three different Nationals each stole three bases, matching a century-old record that never had been equaled in the A.L or N.L. by three different players on one team.  It was first achieved by the Indianapolis team in the short-lived Federal League in 1914.

The Elias Sports Bureau came up with the Indianapolis Hoosiers’ record-setting games: August 14 and 15 (a doubleheader), 1914. Rickey Henderson — who else!—sole three bases himself in three straight games on July 3, 4 and 5 with Oakland in 1983.

On Sunday, April 7, in Philadelphia, Lane Thomas stole three bases. Monday night April 8 in San Francisco, rookie Trey Lipscomb shook off jet jag to steal three bags. Jacob Young did the same on Tuesday night against the Giants.

In addition, a fourth National, team-record holder CJ Abrams had already stolen three bases in a game this season during the opening series in Cincinnati.

The Nationals’ running drew the attention of opponents. Not surprisingly, Washington’s success race dropped substantially in June. On June 22 against the Marlins, Abrams, Thomas and Young were caught stealing in the same game,

Until he was thrown out on May 1, the speedy Young  had moved into a tie for fourth place on the list of all-time leaders for most consecutive stolen bases (25) at the start of a career without being caught. During his late-season stint in 2023, he was successful in all 13 of his steal attempts. He began 2024 with 12 successful steals.

Elias reported that, since both leagues began compiling caught-stealing statistics in 1951, the only players ahead of Young  with the consecutive steals without being caught to start their careers are Tim Locastro (29), Tim Raines (27) and Mitchell Page (26).

Still, Young had a long way to go to catch the four players in the top 10 tied with 36 consecutive successful attempts. Vince Coleman stole a record 50 bases in a row without being caught from September 16, 1988, to July 26, 1989. Last season, former National Trea Turner set a modern record of 30 steals without being thrown out once all year.

Lipscomb, aside from his three-steal game, earlier this season joined Bryce Harper and Trea Turner as Nats’ rookies who have stolen home. On May 14 in Chicago, he stole three bases in a game for a second time.

Thanks to the bigger bases and the limit on pick-off throws, the number and successful percentage of stole bases increased in 2023. Teams stole 1.4 bases per game and achieved an all-time best 80.2 percent success rate, up from 75.4 percent in 2022, which itself set a record. The 3,503 stolen bases for the season were the most since the 3,585 steals in 1987.

The Cincinnati Reds led baseball with 190 steals in 238 attempts, a 79.8  percent success rate, in 2023. The Nationals set a team record with 127 stolen bases, but that total was just 12th best in MLB. Nats’ runners were successful 81 percent of the time, slightly better than the league average.

“They’re playing with their hair on fire,” manager Davey Martinez told reporters after the series in San Francisco.

Whether the Nationals or any team threatens the record for most steals in a season remains to be seen. Washington certainly has several players who are serious threats to steal, if healthy and on the team: Abrams, Thomas, Young, Luis Garcia and Lipscomb. James Wood will join that group when he reaches the majors

Under today’s stolen-base rules, the 1976 Oakland Athletics hold the team record with 341 steals. A’s runners were thrown out 123 times – a 73 percent success rate. The 1899 Baltimore Orioles and the 1911 New York Giants had higher totals, but those included meaningless steals awarded before the defensive indifference rule was established in 1920. The 1985 St. Louis Cardinals stole 314 bases, the last team to top 300. The Cards’ success rate was 77 percent.

Winning teams and bad ones, like the mid- to late-’50s Senators, are equally represented among teams that stole the fewest bases – 20 or less — all of them since 1931.

Before the 2023 rules changes, the number of stolen bases per season – and per team — ebbed and flowed. Because of the absence of a “defensive indifference” rule, stolen-base totals from the dead-ball era were slightly inflated.

Ty Cobb’s 1915 dead-ball era record of 96 steals stood until 1962 when Maury Wills stole 104 bases for the Dodgers. Brock topped Wills with 118 in 1974. Henderson’s record of 130 in 1984 still stands. Cobb’s 1915 mark has been topped nine times now, but not since 1987.

The 1950s were the nadir in the history of stolen bases in the major leagues. The percentage of steals per game has been less than 0.3 only six times since 1901, five of those between 1950 and 1956. The other time was 1949. A May 2022 New York Times article contrasted those numbers with the 1987 average of 0.85 steals per game. However, the number of steals per game from 2018 through 2021 was just under 0.5.

The trend to more steal attempts continues, but perhaps not as much as expected. Catchers are adjusting and getting the ball to second base more quickly and accurately than ever before. In 2022, Ben Clemens of FanGraphs wrote that catchers’ so-called pop time – how long it takes them to catch and release their throws  — decreased to less than 1.95 seconds in April 2024, down from 1.98 seconds in 2022. It doesn’t sound like much, but anyone who watches steal attempts regularly knows how close the calls are on so many of them are.

Pitchers, as they always have to combat steals, will vary their deliveries, their leg kicks and their pick-off moves. Pitch-outs may become common again.

 The Athletic reported in early May 2024 that a few pitchers are willing to risk a balk call by making a third unsuccessful attempt to pick off a runner. The success rate for steals, the story reported, is 87 percent after a second pick-off attempt, so pitchers who are slow to the plate are assuming that balking a fast runner to second is better than having the infielders moving out of positions to cover the bag.

Regression toward the mean might not apply as the game adjusts to a new normal.

A different version of this, “Do More Stolen Bases Assure Winning Baseball?” is included in the Acta Sports book, Here’s the Pitch 2025, compiled and edited by Dan Schossberg for the internet Baseball Writers Association of America.

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